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Rampant growth in Medicare spending reflects the growing number of obese patients receiving treatment for multiple related conditions, a recent study indicates, and should change the discourse about Medicare's future, the researchers say.
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"Clearly, increases in obesity levels play a role," the authors conclude. "Many obese people have multiple morbidities such as hyperlipidemia, diabetes, and hypertension." Obesity has doubled among the Medicare population since 1987, they report, but spending on obese patients has tripled.
"The orientation of where we need to focus has to change quite substantially," says co-author Kenneth E. Thorpe, PhD, chairman of the Department of Health Policy and Management at Emory University's Rollins School of Public Health in Atlanta. He suggests that the rising prevalence of obesity with other comorbidities necessitates a shift away from the traditional fee-for-service system toward one that encourages prevention.
In a recent analysis of publicly available data published in Health Affairs, Thorpe and fellow Emory scholar David H. Howard write: "Virtually all of the growth in spending from 1987 to 2002 can be traced to the 20-percentage-point increase in the share of Medicare patients receiving medical treatment for five or more conditions during a year. The factors responsible for these trends are likely to continue, leading to further increases in spending and intensifying the financial pressures on Medicare."1
The authors draw their conclusions in part on an examination of insulin resistance, obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidemiasymptoms sometimes grouped together under the controversial banner of "metabolic syndrome." The share of noninstitutionalized Medicare patients with such conditions being treated with medication has jumped by 11.5 percentage points in less than a decade, they say.
In 1987, 31% of all Medicare beneficiaries were treated for five or more different conditions and accounted for 52.2% of total spending; 5 years later, slightly more than half the beneficiaries had at least five health conditions and represented 76.2% of spending. In 2002, almost 93% of all spending on Medicare beneficiaries was for patients with three or more conditions.
According to Thorpe and Howard, the findings highlight the need to develop models and standards of care that address patients with multiple complex comorbidities. In turn, lifestyle modification strategies and care coordination will require changes in how Medicare covers treatment and interacts with providers.
"The Medicare program, in terms of how services are paid for, is not
equipped to handle this population," Thorpe says. He says the growing
health crisis among the "near elderly" aging baby boomers
nearing Medicare eligibilitywill only exacerbate the problem unless
policymakers bring the 40-year-old program in line with today's realities.
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